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Bayesian approaches to inferring dates and rates of magmatic processes

C. Brenhin Keller

Abstract

A fundamental problem in geochronology, particularly including that of magmatic and volcanic processes, is that the events which can be directly dated by geochronology (e.g., mineral crystallization or closure) often do not directly correspond to the events and processes of geologic interest (e.g., eruption or emplacement). While this problem may be approached statistically from either a Bayesian or Frequentist perspective in equally valid ways, the ease of integrating other prior information (either empirical, or from physics-based forward modeling) in Bayesian estimates has recently proven attractive in some cases. Here we will consider recent developments and future opportunities for such Bayesian approaches to addressing the gap between directly datable events and those which can be only indirectly constrained, and the implications thereof for better constraining the dates and rates of magmatic and volcanic processes.