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2023-2025 inflation episodes within the Svartsengi Volcanic System, SW Iceland: Implications for improved forecasting and hazard assessment

Chiara Lanzi1 , Michelle Parks1, Vincent Drouin1, Benedikt G. Ófeigsson1, Andrew Hooper2, Yilin Yang3, Freysteinn Sigmundsson3, Halldór Geirsson3, Hildur María Friðriksdóttir1, Simon Matthews3

  • Affiliations: 1Icelandic Meteorological Office2 Nordic Volcanological Center, Institute and Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland. 2 COMET, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK. 3 Nordic Volcanological Center, Institute and Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland. 

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Friday 16:30 - 18:00, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 18

  • Programme No: 1.5.25

  • Theme 1 > Session 5

Abstract

Since October 2023 the Svartsengi volcanic system (SW Iceland) has experienced ten inflation episodes associated with magma inflow into a ~4--5 km-deep magma domain. Inflation episodes occurring between October 2023 to November 2024 were interrupted by rapid deflation and concurrent dike intrusions, leading to a total of 7 eruptions within the nearby Sundhnúkur crater row and its extension. From October 2023 to March 2024, inflation was detected by GNSS and InSAR observations in-between the diking events/eruptions. However, since the 16 March 2024 dike intrusion, inflation resumed soon after the onset of eruption, despite the on-going extrusion of lava flows. This study focuses particularly on the inflation events to strenghen our understanding of the magma supply and evolution of the magmatic system following each diking event/eruption. We jointly modelled the GNSS and INSAR observations by using a variety of source geometries (e.g., spherical, sill-type and ellipsoidal sources) embedded in a homogeneous, elastic half-space. Interestingly, geodetic models infer a variation in depth of the in-between dike inflation and co-diking deflation, possibly indicating the involvement of multiple magma pockets as suggested by the geochemical compositional variability of the erupted material. Enhanced comprehension of the magmatic plumbing system, its evolution and dynamics that led to the sequence of repeated dike intrusions and eruptions observed at Svartsengi may assist in improving (i) the real-time monitoring by tracking early precursory signals of withdrawal of magma from the magma domain towards the surface, (ii) eruptive dynamics and thus, (iii) volcanic hazard associated with it.