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Lessons learned from near real-time monitoring of volcanic unrest and dike propagation/eruption forecasting in Iceland

Vincent Drouin 1, Benedikt G. Ófeigsson1, Hildur M. Friðriksdóttir1, Michelle Parks1, Sigrún Hreinsdóttir2

  • Affiliations: 1Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland; 2Earth Structure and Processes Department, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New-Zealand

  • Presentation type: Talk

  • Presentation time: Monday 14:15 - 14:30, Room S160

  • Programme No: 2.4.11

  • Theme 2 > Session 4

Abstract

In October 2023, rapid inflation commenced in the Svartsengi volcanic system which culminated in a very large dike intrusion on the 10 November 2023. The inflation resumed soon after the event before triggering a new dike intrusion, this time associated with an eruption, in December 2023. This pattern started again and prompted the creation of a series of tools to be able to i) monitor the magma inflow within the reservoir beneath Svartsengi, ii) forecast the timing of the next dike intrusion based on the magma recharge rate and volume, iii) track dike intrusions in real-time as they propagate and estimate the potential location of eruptive fissures and iv) predict a likely end of the eruptive episodes. The local continuous GNSS network is providing the input data for the geodetic inversions/modeling required by these tools. All the tools are fully automated and are run on a daily basis (i, ii, iv) or a 5-min basis (iii). The results have proven to be very useful for the monitoring of the volcanic system and forecasting future events, despite the associated uncertainties. They are now routinely used, among other tools, by the monitoring team at the Icelandic Meteorological Office to inform the Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management, relevant stakeholders and the general public on changes in activity and the timing of the increased likelihood of diking events/eruptions. Some of these monitoring tools have also been expanded to include other volcanoes, also in state of unrest in Iceland, like Askja and Bárðarbunga.