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Progress in short-term eruption forecasts by the USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP)

Heather MN Wright, Jay Wellik, Sally Sennert, Stephanie G Prejean, Jeremy Pesicek, Sarah E Ogburn, Wendy McCausland, JoAnna G Marlow, Jacob B Lowenstern , Zac Hastings, Chris Hight

Abstract

As part of VDAP's program to support volcano observatories, we are often asked to assist our international counterparts with short-term eruption forecasts. Our preferred method for forecasts is an event tree, an excellent means to assess relative probabilities for a suite of potential eruptive and non-eruptive outcomes.  We perform quarterly exercises to quantify probabilities of eruptions at restless volcanoes worldwide.  The exercises expose weaknesses in our methods and gaps in our background data, while allowing us to recognize ways to avoid cognitive biases in how we design surveys and assign probabilities. We are actively undertaking several projects to support short-term forecasts.  With USAID funds, we are expanding our partnership with the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program to include a Daily Volcanic Activity Report (DVAR), which will be based on volcano observatory reports. Additionally, the data will populate VDAP's Eruption Chronology (Echron) database and support WOVOdat. The DVAR can be facilitated by improved reporting protocols, standardized data formats, and templates for use by the global volcano observatory community.  Reports from VAACs and satellite observations will enrich the pool of data used to optimize forecasts. In addition, VDAP seismologists are working to develop methods and software to better interpret volcanic earthquakes and swarms, and to track variations in earthquake families. We use infrasound to locate eruptions sources, and we explore potential correlations between eruptions and regional tectonic earthquakes. We are excited by how these different threads can help the global community improve tools to forecast behavior at threatening volcanoes.