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Using remote sensing techniques to analyze physical dynamics and paroxysmal precursors during the 2019--2020 and 2023 eruptions at Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska

Andie Gomez-Patron1, Hannah Dietterich2, David Schneider2

  • Affiliations: 1Earth and Atmospheric Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, US; 2U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Volcano Observatory, Anchorage, US

  • Presentation type: Talk

  • Presentation time: Monday 08:45 - 09:00, Room S160

  • Programme No: 2.4.2

  • Theme 2 > Session 4

Abstract

Ash-producing volcanic eruptions pose a risk to nearby towns and a widespread risk to aviation. During persistent eruptions, mafic stratovolcanoes can produce paroxysms, which are sudden plume-producing events that are often preceded by strombolian or lava fountaining activity. In 2019-2020 Shishaldin Volcano in Alaska, USA erupted, producing three different paroxysms that were characterized by sustained strombolian activity and lava effusion that preceded large ash plumes. Shishaldin erupted again in 2023 with 13 paroxysms, which unlike 2020, were not preceded by lava flows. To understand the differences between these two eruptions, their individual paroxysms, and paroxysmal precursors, we used GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) spectral radiance data to quantitatively characterize eruptive style with volcanic radiative power (VRP), plume heights, and plume spectral characteristics, and compared this to seismicity (e.g., reduced displacement) in the time before and during all paroxysmal events. We then compared event characteristics such as plume height, plume duration, maximum VRP, etc. and ran correlation statistics against thermal and seismic precursor signals. We saw that reduced displacement peaks and plume height peaks were often not correlated, with offsets greater than ten minutes. We also found that seismic run-up time and the time between plume onset and plume peak are positively correlated, indicating that the longer the seismic run-up, the longer time before the plume peaks. Overall, the 2019--2020 and 2023 precursory and paroxysmal events are not distinguishable within our measurements , but the relationships between precursor durations and paroxysm timing are consistent, informing potential future eruption forecasting.