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Short-term eruption forecasting in the next decade: A new era of high-resolution thermal infrared data

Michael Ramsey 1, James Thompson2, Jean-François Smekens3

  • Affiliations: 1Department of Geology and Environmental Science, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA; 2Bureau of Economic Geology, University of Texas, Austin, TX, USA; 3Department of Astronomy and Planetary Science, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA 

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Monday 16:30 - 18:30, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 261

  • Programme No: 2.4.37

  • Theme 2 > Session 4

Abstract

Globally, most active volcanoes present subtle temperature changes prior to increased activity and eruption onset. Our recent work shows this is accurate 80% of the time, with some exceeding 95%. Over time many of these volcanoes also produce passive, gas-rich plumes that can evolve into more ash-rich emissions during eruptive phases. However, the ability to detect these changes is hindered by the lack of ground-based thermal infrared (TIR) instruments and the limitations of prior orbital TIR sensors. These data must have sufficiently high temporal and spatial resolution to establish each volcano's baseline and capture precursory eruption trends that deviate from that baseline. The next era of TIR data will see both portable and inexpensive ground-based systems coupled with new orbital missions that have vastly improved spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions. Retrieval of a 1-2 degree temperature change over 60 meters each day will become a reality. One of these, the new Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) TIR mission, is now in development with the potential to greatly expand quantitative orbital volcanology. NASA is planning a suite of standard data products for SBG including Volcanic Activity (VA) for > 900 targets. The VA will contain model-based retrievals of SO2 and ground temperature with an overall indicator of each pixel's activity state. Here we present initial results from a new ground-based TIR camera system designed to provide VA algorithm calibration and establish the volcanic activity state. These results are compared to past satellite thermal trends and projected forward to future SBG-based forecasting.