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Using Cross-Entropy as a Volcanic Precursor: the case study of the 2021 Tajogaite Eruption (La Palma, Spain)

Aarón Álvarez-Hernández4 (aalvarez@involcan.org) , Luca D'Auria4, 5 (ldauria@iter.es), Rubén García-Hernández4 (rgarciahernandez@involcan.org), David Martínez-van Dorth4, 5 (dmartinez@iter.es), Víctor Ortega-Ramos4 (victor.ortega@involcan.org), Germán D. Padilla-Hernández4, 5 (german@iter.es), Pablo Rey-Devesa1, 2 (pablord@ugr.es), Janire Prudencio1, 2 (janire@ugr.es), Manuel Titos3 (titos@ugr.es), Jesús Ibáñez1, 2 (jibanez@ugr.es), Carmen Benítez3 (carmen@ugr.es), and Nemesio M. Pérez4, 5 (nperez@iter.es)

  • Affiliations: 1Department of Theoretical Physics and Cosmos, Science Faculty, University of Granada, Granada, Spain; 2Andalusian Institute of Geophysics, Campus de Cartuja, University of Granada, Granada, Spain; 3Department of Signal Theory, Telematics and Communication, Informatics and Telecommunication School, University of Granada, Granada, Spain; 4Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias (INVOLCAN), Puerto de la Cruz, Spain; 5Instituto Tecnológico y de Energías Renovables (ITER), Granadilla de Abona, Spain

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Monday 16:30 - 18:30, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 276

  • Programme No: 2.4.46

  • Theme 2 > Session 4

Abstract

This study investigates the application of seismic cross-entropy as a possible geophysical precursor of volcanic activity in the Canary Islands, with a special focus on the 2021 Tajogaite eruption (La Palma, Spain). Using data from the Red Sísmica Canaria, which comprised seven seismic stations operational during the eruption period, we calculated temporal variation in seismic entropy for each station and seismic cross-entropy for all possible station pairs. The results show a significant and widespread decline in cross-entropy in the hours preceding the eruption. Additionally, we performed a spatiotemporal analysis using two-dimensional Gaussian interpolation. This allowed us to create cross-entropy maps, revealing that the minimum cross-entropy values were concentrated precisely in the area where the eruption occurred. These results suggest that cross-entropy can be a valuable indicator for the early detection of volcanic eruptions, providing an additional tool for volcanic monitoring and risk mitigation. This tool has computation times low enough to be implemented in real-time. We maintain that this study highlights the importance of cross-entropy in seismo-volcanic monitoring and its potential application in other volcanic contexts.