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Exploring multiparametric data analyses to study volcanic activity at Stromboli from 2016 to 2024

Alexander Garcia1, Lucia Zaccarelli1, Laura Sandri1, Micol Todesco1

Abstract

Eruptive activity at Stromboli mostly features mild, persistent, namely Strombolian, explosive activity from summit craters. The energy associated with the explosions changes through time, and periodically leads to stronger events usually classified as major explosions and, occasionally, paroxysms, such as those that occurred in 2019 and 2024. This eruptive activity generates a wide variety of geochemical and geophysical signals, associated with the ascent and interaction of gas and magma along the conduit. We performed a joint analysis of seismic, geochemical, meteorological, and sea-level gauges data from 2016 to 2024 to identify and characterize patterns in the time series, especially during more energetic episodes: (i) we implemented algorithms for the automatic detection of events with similar  waveform features; (ii) we analyzed the effect of external perturbations as oceanic microtremor and tides on continuous and discrete amplitude-based measurements; (iii) we studied the temporal and size distribution of event occurrences, and use this information to assess likely trends in eruptive behavior, (iv) we used noise cross-correlations to compute seismic velocity variations of the shallow crust. The joint analysis of multi-parametric measurements provide interesting insights in the temporal evolution of the eruptive activity at Stromboli; for example, correlated changes in the pattern at which events occur in time, patterns in the distribution of extreme-amplitude events, and evidence of a decrease in seismic velocity, seem to be phenomena occurring before paroxysmal eruptions. Further  analyses based on  pattern recognition techniques can provide new insights on the volcanic processes generating these observations