Temporal evolution for the last 75 years of unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)
^^ Luca Caricchi1^^ , Charline Lormand1, Stefano Carlino2, Tommaso Pivetta2, Guy Simpson1
Affiliations: 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Switzerland; 2Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Napoli, Italy
Presentation type: Talk
Presentation time: Friday 08:30 - 08:45, Room R290
Programme No: 3.10.1
Abstract
The temporal interval between eruptive events can exceed human life, which poses great challenges for the management of volcanic crises. Campi Flegrei are an emblematic example of this complexity, with 350.000 people living inside the caldera and about two million people nearby. The last eruption took place in 1538 and a crisis of volcanic unrest is ongoing since 1950 and with documented episodes going back to Roman times. Periods of ground uplift, increased seismicity and enhanced release of magmatic gases are intercalated by episodes of subsidence and diminished seismicity (e.g. 1984-2005). While several mechanisms to explain these manifestations have been proposed, a quantitative framework is still missing. We use monitoring parameters and existing data in combination with thermal modelling and calculations of the physical properties of magma to provide plausible scenarios for the status of eventual magma in the shallow crust at Campi Flegrei. Here we show that the injection of magma at 4 km depth, as well as a flux of magmatic fluids from greater depths are both necessary to explain the measurements and observations collected since 1950. Our results show that potentially eruptible magma is present today at depth of about 4 km. However, its compressibility and the high temperature of the crust surrounding the reservoir leads to low magma overpressures within the reservoir. The first order constraints inferred by our calculations provide valuable insights to define scenarios for the evolution of the ongoing volcanic crisis.