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Characterisation of the eruption magnitude distribution during the last three Epochs of activity of Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

Daniela Matias 1, Roberto Isaia2, Laura Sandri1, Roberto Sulpizio3, Silvia Massaro 3, Antonio Costa1

  • Affiliations: 1 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italia 2 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Osservatorio Vesuviano, Italia 3 Università degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italia

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Friday 16:30 - 18:00, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 214

  • Programme No: 3.10.14

  • Theme 3 > Session 10

Abstract

The Campi Flegrei caldera, located in southern Italy in the western part of the Bay of Naples, is an active and restless volcanic system. The caldera and its surroundings are densely populated, being one of the areas at highest volcanic risk on Earth. The last three Epochs of activity of Campi Flegrei caldera (< ~15 ky) have been marked by intense volcanism and ground deformation, with over 60 eruptions recorded. Despite extensive studies on some of its larger eruptions, the volumes of magma erupted during many of the Campi Flegrei events remain poorly constrained, mainly due to the limited quality and quantity of field data available, particularly for older eruptions. In this study, we apply a novel statistical method that estimates tephra fallout deposit volumes using thickness data from a minimum of two distinct sampling locations, such as one proximal and one distal. This approach offers a simplified yet reliable alternative for eruptions where field data are scarce, making it suitable for eruptions with incomplete records. As a result, we obtain the distribution of the volumes of several tephra fallout deposits along with the related uncertainties for each Epoch of activity. Using the published estimates of the density of tephra fallout deposits, we convert these volume estimates into mass estimates for each eruption and obtain the respective likely range of eruption magnitudes. Thus, this work contributes to a better understanding of Campi Flegrei caldera eruptive history, which is essential for a more robust hazard evaluation, risk mitigation and preparedness efforts.