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Comparing and evaluating two one-dimensional volcanic plume models using the Independent Volcanic Eruption Source Parameter Archive (IVESPA) database.

Titouan Renaud 1,2, Thomas J. Aubry2, Mark Woodhouse3, Sarah Muzard1,2, Félix Delebecque2,4

  • Affiliations: 1Department of Physics, École Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay, Université Paris-Saclay, France; 2Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK; 3School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK; 4Department of Mathematics, École Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay, France.

  • Presentation type: Talk

  • Presentation time: Thursday 09:15 - 09:30, Room S160

  • Programme No: 3.12.4

  • Theme 3 > Session 12

Abstract

Explosive volcanic eruptions generate plumes which can pose direct threat to life and long-term health issues, cause widespread environmental and infrastructure damage, and interrupt the air traffic. Numerical models for volcanic plume rise underpin our understanding of how eruption source parameters and atmospheric conditions govern plume stability and rise height, and these models are key to managing volcanic hazard operationally. However, these models are subject to large uncertainties, in particular associated with the treatment of turbulent entrainment and water phase change processes in the plume. Here we take advantage of the new IVESPA database to evaluate and characterize two one-dimensional (1D) models: the Geneva and Plumerise models. IVESPA gathers all main eruption source parameters, their uncertainties, and atmospheric profiles for 134 well-observed volcanic events. We use it to determine entrainment coefficients minimizing the error on predicted plume height for each model, propagating uncertainties using a Monte Carlo simulations. Moreover, we assess the best approach to account for water phase change in 1D models, in particular for tropical plumes rising in humid atmospheres. Last, we compare the performance of both 1D plume models to the canonical power law linking the mass eruption rate to the plume top height. Our evaluation shed light on potential biases in both 1D plume models and the IVESPA database.