Gas-driven sudden explosive eruptions: characteristics, precursors, and forecasting
John Stix 1, J. Maarten de Moor2, Alessandro Aiuppa3
Affiliations: 1Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Canada; 2Observatorio Vulcanológico y Sismológico de Costa Rica, Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica; 3Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Italy
Presentation type: Talk [Invited]
Presentation time: Thursday 10:30 - 10:45, Room S160
Programme No: 3.14.1
Abstract
Explosive eruptions of VEI 3 or less commonly occur with few or no warning signs. Such eruptions can be magmatic, phreatomagmatic, or phreatic in nature, and they are driven by catastrophic release of pressurized gas. Our challenge is how to better forecast these eruptions, and better understand them, with existing and new tools. Here we examine a number of such eruptions, some lethal to humans, which have occurred during the last decade. We describe the key precursory signals that preceded these events, assess whether they developed in a bottom-up or top-down fashion, and compare the different timescales of precursory activity. Based on these events, we identify a number of precursory signals that may be generally applicable and exportable to such systems, and we discuss effective means of using thresholds of these precursory signals and eruptive transitions to improve our forecasting abilities. We outline three grand challenges for the next decade: (1) a full view of subsurface volcano plumbing, (2) complete forecasts of explosive eruptions including when, where, how big, and what type, and (3) monitoring networks that are comprehensive, similar, and systematic in nature.