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Societal Responses and Impacts from Volcano-Induced Climate Shocks

Mike Cassidy 1,2, Peter Frankopan3, Markus Stoffel4, David Pyle5, Lara Mani2, Sebastian Watt1

  • Affiliations: 1Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, UK; 2Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, UK; 3Department of History, University of Oxford, UK; 4Institute for Environmental Sciences University of Geneva, Switzerland, 5Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, UK

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Monday 16:30 - 18:30, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 11

  • Programme No: 6.1.17

  • Theme 6 > Session 1

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions pose multi-hazard risks, including tephra fallout, pyroclastic flows, tsunamis, and global climate shocks. While these primary hazards can be modelled with reasonable accuracy, cascading second- and third-order impacts are less understood. These depend on global exposure, pre-existing vulnerabilities, and human decision-making, which can mitigate or exacerbate outcomes. Historical records show that while some societies faced decline under comparable conditions, others adapted through mechanisms such as trade networks, highlighting the importance of governance and socio-economic resilience in the severity of the impacts. Using historical case studies climate shocks following eruptions in 1815, 1783, 1600, 1257, 536/540, and 43 BCE, we identify four recurring pathway cascades: famine, economic hardship, disease outbreaks, and political/civil instability. We break down the various mechanisms behind each pathway, which have been influenced by societal resilience and responses. For instance, repeated human responses such as hoarding, profiteering, trade disruptions, and exploitation of weakened states demonstrate the pivotal role of human agency in shaping cascading impacts. We will evaluate how these historical pathways could manifest in a modern volcanic climate shock. In today's interconnected world, such shocks would cascade through governance, trade, and food systems, compounding other global risks like anthropogenic climate change and political instability. Historical responses demonstrate that resilience---through trade, innovation, and effective governance---can mitigate some of the environmental shocks. By integrating historical insights, we aim to strengthen global risk frameworks and inform strategies, such as prioritising resilience-building and addressing structural inequalities, on vulnerable populations and regions to mitigate future volcanic climate shocks.