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Assessing systemic risk response to globally disruptive volcanic eruptions

Lara Mani 1, Jenty Kirsch-Wood2

  • Affiliations:  1Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; 2United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland. 

  • Presentation type: Talk

  • Presentation time: Monday 09:30 - 09:45, Room R290

  • Programme No: 6.1.5

  • Theme 6 > Session 1

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions pose a systemic risk to our global societies through their ability to disrupt global systems and perturb global climate. Interactions between volcanic hazards and critical infrastructure and systems can trigger a cascade of disruptions and failures in interconnected systems, escalating the impacts to a global scale. In our ever-connected world, even lower magnitude eruptions can have global impacts as demonstrated by the 2010 VEI 4 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland which disrupted global transport and supply chains with an estimated cost of US $5 billion to the global economy. The interaction between complex systems and networks and volcanic eruptions is becoming more critical, and this research asks: how prepared are we to respond to the systemic risk from volcanic eruptions? Through interdisciplinary workshops hosted with complexity researchers and with stakeholders across various UN agencies engaged in disaster response and preparedness, this research will share what systemic risk response might look like for a globally disruptive volcanic eruption. Who are the duty bearers responsible for coordinating a response to a systemic volcanic crisis? What resources and funding are required? And what can be done to shift mental mindsets to accommodate better preparedness for large-scale systemic disasters and to move towards transformation in governance systems?