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The next massive volcano eruption will cause climate chaos --- and we are unprepared

Christophe Corona1, Scott St. George2, Markus Stoffel3

  • Affiliations: 1CNRS LECA, Université Grenoble-Alpes, France; 2WTW, Minneapolis, U.S.; 3Department of Earth Sciences and Departmenmt of Environmental and Aquatic Sciences, University of Geneva, Switzerland

  • Presentation type: Talk

  • Presentation time: Monday 09:45 - 10:00, Room R290

  • Programme No: 6.1.6

  • Theme 6 > Session 1

Abstract

Cataclysmic volcanic eruptions are rare but inevitable. Imagine if the 1815 Tambora eruption happened today? It triggered waves of destructive weather anomalies, cooled the northern hemisphere by 1°C and the subsequent year was said to lack a summer, resulting in meagre harvests. A doubling of grain prices led to societal unrest in Europe and plunged the United States into its first economic depression. The eruption's ripple effects resulted in a death toll likely in the tens of millions. The Tamboran gloom has faded, and the world has been spared from a volcanic eruption of similar magnitude in more than 200 years. Yet, the question is not if such a cataclysm will occur again, but when. Geological evidence based on volcanic deposits over the past 60,000 years suggests a 1-in-6 probability for a massive eruption to occur in the 21st century. The risks of a Tambora-like eruption within the next five years would cause losses of more than $3.6 trillion, and $1.2 trillion more over subsequent years, due to extreme weather, reduced crop yields and food instability. Those values have large uncertainties attached. To pin down these uncertainties, we call for a three-pronged approach. First, researchers should tie in models and geological evidence for past climates with historic volcanic records. Second, they should explore how volcanic cooling might interact with anthropogenic climate warming. And third, scientists, analysts and policymakers need to design strategies for minimizing the impacts of a catastrophic eruption, by coupling climate, crop and food shock models.