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Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment during quiescence: A scenario-based framework for Gede, West Java (Indonesia)

Eleanor Tennant 1, Susanna, F. Jenkins 1, Annie Winson 2, Christina Widiwijayanti 1, Heruningtyas D. Purnamasari 3, Nugraha Kartadinata 3, Wilfridus Banggur 4

  • Affiliations: 1 Earth Observatory of Singapore and Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 639798, Singapore 2 British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG, United Kingdom 3 Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, Bandung city, West Java 40122 4 National Research and Innovation Agency, Jakarta, 10340

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Tuesday 16:30 - 18:30, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 53

  • Programme No: 6.3.12

  • Theme 6 > Session 3

Abstract

Assessing areas likely to be affected by volcanic hazards is one of the first steps towards reducing volcanic risk. This assessment often utilises analysis of a volcano's past eruptions to forecast the size and style of future eruptions and the spatial extent of the hazards. However, there are many active volcanoes that do not have extensive eruption records to forecast future behaviours from, Gede volcano is one example. We conducted the first probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for Gede[,]{.underline} the closest active volcano to Jakarta, Indonesia's largest city. To supplement Gede's limited eruption record we used analogue volcanoes and global datasets to develop eruption scenarios, and to parameterise hazard models. Our analysis suggests that major and Plinian explosive eruptions could deposit sufficient tephra to disrupt airport operations and vital lifelines across the city of Jakarta, while tephra fall from prolonged eruption scenarios may obscure road markings and disrupt agriculture operations proximal to the volcano. Flow hazards are primarily impact the northeastern flank of the volcano; lava flows reach ~3 km in this direction, block-and-ash flows are expected to extend up to ~11 km, and dilute pyroclastic density currents from a collapsing minor explosive eruption column can extend up to ~15 km. Through this work we have provided a background probabilistic hazard assessment for Gede volcano and a framework for volcanic hazard assessment in data-limited contexts. This assessment serves as a tool for preparedness and planning for the future eruptions, enhancing risk mitigation in one of the most exposed regions of the world.