Skip to content

Towards the probabilistic construction of eruptive scenarios of the El Chichón volcano (Mexico): advances in ash dispersion modeling.

Omar Cruz-Vázquez1, Lucia Capra2

  • Affiliations: 1 Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra, Instituto de Geociencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, campus Juriquilla. Blvd. Juriquilla 30001, Querétaro 76230, México  2 Instituto de Geociencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, campus Juriquilla. Blvd. Juriquilla 30001, Querétaro 76230, México 

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Tuesday 16:30 - 18:30, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 54

  • Programme No: 6.3.13

  • Theme 6 > Session 3

Abstract

El Chichón volcano, located in southern Mexico, gained worldwide recognition after its catastrophic eruption in 1982 (VEI 5), which resulted in over 2,000 fatalities and the displacement of several villages. Since then, numerous studies have been conducted to understand the dynamic processes of this volcano. For instance, the actual hazard map was constructed using a deterministic approach, considering only the most recent eruption as a scenario. However, it is necessary to adopt a probabilistic approach to comprehend better and define eruptive scenarios, considering the stratigraphic records available for the last 10,000 years. A probabilistic approach is needed to account for volcanic processes' inherent uncertainties, providing a more comprehensive and realistic view of potential eruptive scenarios. To achieve this, modern tools must be employed to simulate various volcanic processes, thereby generating various possible outcomes based on statistical analyses. This includes variations in eruptive parameters, atmospheric conditions, topographic influences, etc. In this study, we present the preliminary results in ash dispersion modeling, utilizing the latest version of FALL3D and incorporating data from different atmospheric levels using global and mesoscale models (ERA-5 and WRF) and variation in eruptive parameters considering the Holocene stratigraphic record. These results will contribute to developing a new probabilistic hazard map for the El Chichón volcano, including other processes such as pyroclastic density currents and syn and post-eruptive lahars.