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To what degree can we forecast volcanic ballistic projectile hazard?

Rebecca Fitzgerald 1,2, Mark Bebbington2, Stuart Mead2, Jon Procter2

  • Affiliations: 1GNS Science, Avalon, New Zealand; 2Volcanic Risk Solutions, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Tuesday 16:30 - 18:30, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 56

  • Programme No: 6.3.15

  • Theme 6 > Session 3

Abstract

Volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBPs) are the most common cause of fatality for both tourists and scientists on volcanoes. Quick and easy to use probabilistic forecasts could provide information on where VBP would most likely impact, how intense the impact will be and subsequently the ability to calculate risk to life to exposed people. Here we present results from an exploratory data analysis of 152 collated VBP hazard values, investigating relationships between factors that may be used to forecast hazard. Data was analysed from 77 different volcanoes, with over 50% of those values from mafic volcanoes (composition), stratovolcanoes (morphology), and from Strombolian eruptions (eruption style). Hazard characteristics with enough data to analyse for relationships included maximum clast size, maximum travel distance and maximum velocity. We see a strong positive correlation between VBP maximum velocity and maximum travel distance and can see some explanatory value when the data is split into different eruption styles. We found that eruption style is a significant factor affecting maximum travel distance, though the presence of a hydrothermal system, volcano composition, volcano morphology type, individual volcano, were not found to be significant factors affecting the three characteristics analysed. This means that eruption style, if it can be forecast, could be used to forecast the distance to which VBPs may impact.