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Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Stromboli volcano (Italy)

Alessandro Tadini1, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi1, Andrea Bevilacqua1, Emmie Bonilauri2, Andrew Harris2, Augusto Neri1, Raphaël Paris2, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro1, Matteo Cerminara1, Matteo Trolese1, Juan Francisco Rodriguez Gàlvez1, Marco Pistolesi3

  • Affiliations: 1Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy; 2Université Clermont Auvergne, Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Aubiére, France; 3Università di Pisa, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Pisa, Italy;

  • Presentation type: Talk

  • Presentation time: Tuesday 14:30 - 14:45, Room R290

  • Programme No: 6.3.2

  • Theme 6 > Session 3

Abstract

Volcanic-induced tsunamis have a potentially devastating impact, especially in densely populated and/or touristic coastal areas. Stromboli volcano (Aeolian islands, southern Italy) is known for its persistent explosive activity occasionally punctuated by more powerful explosions and lava effusions. Most of the erupted products tend to accumulate within the "Sciara del Fuoco" area, a horseshoe-shaped subaerial and submarine depression located to the NW of the island. The high amount of unstable material within such area has led to the development of tsunamigenic landslides, from low volumes (< 1 Mm3) resulting in negligible tsunami waves and inundation, up to larger volumes (≥30 Mm3) producing high-amplitude tsunami waves and large inundation. In this study we present a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Stromboli Island that includes: i) a review of historic tsunamis at Stromboli and their correlation with explosive/effusive activity; ii) a dataset of inundation maps from simulations of tsunamis generated by landslides along the Sciara del Fuoco; iii) an uncertainty quantification analysis through expert elicitation of several aspects of tsunamigenic landslide at Stromboli (e.g., their number in the past and in the next 50 years, the probabilities of different triggering mechanisms, the relative probability of different volumes and initial positions of the tsunamigenic landslides). Results consist of probabilistic inundation maps and hazard curves in different locations of the island coupled with a temporal model of occurrence valid for the next 50 years. Maps are presented with a specific focus on the village of Stromboli and accounting for the quantified uncertainty.