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Beyond the eruption: a holistic approach to understanding cascading hazards and risks at Stromboli.

^^Irene Manzella^1,2^, Symeon Makris2,3, Daniele Casalbore4, Paul Cole2, Karim Kelfoun5, Aggeliki Georgiopoulou6, Anna Hicks3, Cees van Westen1

  • Affiliations: 1Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands; 2School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK; 3British Geological Survey (BGS), Edinburgh, UK; 4Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università La Sapienza, Roma, Italy; 5Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Université Clermont Auvergne, Clermont-Ferrand, France; 6Ternan Energy, Aberdeen, UK

  • Presentation type: Talk

  • Presentation time: Tuesday 15:00 - 15:15, Room R290

  • Programme No: 6.3.4

  • Theme 6 > Session 3

Abstract

This study investigates tsunamigenic mass flows at Stromboli volcano, focusing on the complex interactions between volcanic activity, coastal hazards, and the related risks. Using the two fluids version of the VolcFlow model (https://lmv.uca.fr/volcflow/), we conducted numerical simulations of past events, particularly the July 3, 2019 eruption, to understand the dynamics of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) entering the sea and their tsunami-generating potential. Our parametric study reveals that PDC volume and discharge rates are critical factors in tsunami generation, with wave height increasing with volume and decreasing with lower discharge rates. High-resolution bathymetric surveys and digital elevation models provided crucial input for refining our models, highlighting the importance of regular and advanced subaerial and submarine surveys to increase the accuracy of forward modelling. Once we have studied these processes, we have introduced an impact chain analysis to broaden our understanding of hazard interrelationships, potential impacts, vulnerabilities, and mitigation measures. The study emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary approaches in volcanic risk management, combining advanced numerical modeling, continuous monitoring, and impact analysis in the case of Stromboli and with implications for similar hazard-prone areas worldwide. Interdisciplinarity, where geological, engineering, environmental, and social perspectives are integrated, contributes to improving hazard assessments, early warning systems, and risk reduction strategies for volcanic coastal environments both in research and risk management. By combining these diverse disciplines, we can develop more comprehensive and effective strategies for mitigating risks and enhancing community resilience in volcanic regions.