Techniques for Validation and Improvement of Volcanic Ash Concentration Ensemble Forecasts
Micaela Maurizi (1), Leonardo Mingari (2), Soledad Osores (3), Michael Pavolonis (4), Justin Sieglaff(5).
Affiliations: (1) Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina (2) GeoBarcelona, Spain (3) Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Argentina (4) NOAA/NESDIS, United States of America (5) Univ. Wisconsin, United States of America
Presentation type: Poster
Presentation time: Thursday 16:30 - 18:30, Room Poster Hall
Poster Board Number: 268
Programme No: 6.4.15
Abstract
The dispersion of volcanic ash poses a significant threat to aviation safety. To mitigate this risk, Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) issue volcanic ash advisories which include information about the observation and the dispersion forecast of volcanic ash clouds. The Buenos Aires VAAC, which currently uses the FALL3D model in a deterministic way, is transitioning towards an ensemble-based forecasting strategy in alignment with the implementation of Quantitative Volcanic Ash (QVA) Information between the end of 2024 and 2025. This study outlines a strategy for calibrating and validating model ensemble, using the eruption of the Ubinas volcano as a case study. The methodology combines satellite products for volcanic ash detection and mass loading estimation from VOLCAT in combination with the ensemble members, enabling an assessment of the uncertainty associated with model input parameters. By analyzing this uncertainty, the study aims to enhance the accuracy of volcanic ash concentration forecasts, optimizing decision-making processes for aviation safety. The findings of this work will contribute to the generation and optimization of critical information, improving volcanic ash concentration forecasts in the years to come. Keywords: Volcanic Ash, VAAC, Quantitative Volcanic Ash Information, Numerical Modeling, Ensembles.