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Quantitative Volcanic Ash Forecasting for Aviation -- A new opportunity for volcanic ash research and collaboration

Matthew Hort , Frances Beckett

Abstract

The Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) provide guidance to the aviation industry on the presence of volcanic ash in the atmosphere, to support decision-making on flight safety. In 2025 the VAACs will start to deliver a new service under the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) which, in addition to the presence of ash, stipulates the provision of 4D quantitative forecasts of ash concentrations and probabilities of exceeding certain prescribed thresholds. This is being referred to as Quantitative Volcanic Ash (QVA). The successful quantitative volcanic ash forecast relies on: data, observations and modelling of eruptive source parameters; suitable numerical weather prediction; a dispersion model with relevant processes; observations of ash in the atmosphere; a data fusion capability to enable the observations to be used in the modeling; suitable products, communications and verification methodologies. To construct a 'full' probabilistic forecast requires, in addition, that probabilities are understood represented in all these areas. Like all real-world services no one expects every or even most aspects to be captured or represented with the advent of QVA. However, the evolution of quantitative analysis from a largely research function to a global near real time forecast service opens up numerous opportunities to make greater use of existing data/capabilities and in how we develop new ones. This talk will step through the components required for a quantitative volcanic ash forecast, highlighting the different opportunities that this creates for using and improving our community's science and data.