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KAIROS AI-digital solution: a novel approach to forecasting the transport of SO2-rich volcanic plumes

Hugues Brenot1, Aniel Jardines2, Javier García-Heras Carretero3, Matthias Piot4, Jeroen van Gent1, Nicolas Theys1, Javier Ballester2, Damien Brunori2, Ana Isabel Herrera2, Nicolas Manzano2, Iván Martínez2, Virginia Villaplana2, Manuel Soler3, Christian Höpfner-Schubert4

  • Affiliations: 1Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA), Brussels, Belgium: 2AI Methods, Madrid, Spain; 3University Carlos III of Madrid (UC3M), Spain; 4Meteomatics, Berlin, Germany

  • Presentation type: Talk

  • Presentation time: Thursday 09:45 - 10:00, Room R280

  • Programme No: 6.4.6

  • Theme 6 > Session 4

Abstract

Aviation and the atmosphere are deeply interconnected, making a solid understanding of meteorological processes vital to passenger safety. However, several atmospheric factors remain significant challenges for aviation operations, including severe weather, space weather, and natural airborne hazards. This study specifically examines the effects of volcanic eruptions on aviation, focusing on the dispersion of volcanic SO2 in the atmosphere. After highlighting the potential damage to aircraft caused by flying through volcanic plumes (from SO2-rich eruptions, continuous degassing, or anthropogenic sources), this work aims to enhance the quality of SO2 cloud data provided to the aviation community using artificial intelligence (AI). Our system develops its algorithms by incorporating both historical data (spanning several months) and near-real-time data inputs (delivered within 10 minutes to 3 hours). Leveraging advanced SO2 observations from geostationary (GEO) and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite sensors operating in the ultraviolet and infrared spectral ranges, the KAIROS system seeks to offer aviation stakeholders precise digital SO2 forecasts with longer lead times. These forecasts will be compatible with decision-support tools, enabling stakeholders to mitigate the impacts of volcanic clouds on their operations. By providing accurate AI-based SO2 forecasts earlier in the air traffic flow management process, aviation stakeholders will be better equipped to minimize operational disruptions. Forecasting SO2 transport around volcanoes is crucial for reducing population health risk and benefiting civil protection and government agencies.