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Tailored transport and deposition forecasting of volcanic emissions for field campaigns: Results from the VOLCOM campaign at Sakurajima volcano, Japan

Alexandros P. Poulidis1,2, ^^Simon Thivet^3^, Simon Bittner1, Andreas Richter1, Masato Iguchi4, Mihalis Vrekoussis1,5,6

  • Affiliations: 1Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), University of Bremen, Germany; 2Sakurajima Volcano Research Center (SVRC), DPRI, Kyoto University, Japan; 3Physical Volcanology and Geological Risk, University of Geneva, Switzerland; 4Professor Emeritus, Kyoto University, Japan; 5Center of Marine Environmental Sciences (MARUM), University of Bremen, Germany; 6Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Cyprus

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Thursday 16:30 - 18:30, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 261

  • Programme No: 6.4.8

  • Theme 6 > Session 4

Abstract

Field campaigns are critical for understanding the Earth system. Given their cost and complexity, precise knowledge of target phenomena is crucial. Dynamical downscaling during campaigns can offer high-resolution forecasts to aid decision-making and improve success rates. This study introduces a probabilistic forecast algorithm tailored for volcanic emission field campaigns, demonstrated using data from the Volcanic Emissions Observation and Modeling (VOLCOM) campaign at Sakurajima, Japan, in November 2023. Sakurajima was selected for its prolonged activity and proximity to a densely populated area (>1 million residents within 20 km). Recent increases in SO2 emissions and reduced explosive activity provided ideal conditions for ground-based mobile Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) observations, used to validate forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and FALL3D models. During the campaign, SO2 emissions were monitored, revealing strong signals (Slant Column Density >1018 molecules cm-2). Comparisons of DOAS observations with forecasts showed good agreement, with Pearson coefficients of 0.54--0.64 when knowledge of the emission height was excluded and up to 0.92 when it was considered. These results underscore the value of high horizontal resolution for accurately simulating local circulations and highlight the importance of scenario-based forecasting to capture anticipated conditions. This approach significantly contributed to the VOLCOM campaign's success, demonstrating the potential of tailored forecasts to enhance field campaign outcomes.