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Compare and Contrast: A user-friendly workflow for assessing and comparing lava flow models

Einat Lev1, Samuel Krasnoff1, Gro Pedersen2, Sylvain J. Charbonnier3, Franco Garin3

  • Affiliations: 1Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA 2Icelandic Met Office, Iceland 3School of Geosciences, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, USA

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Tuesday 16:30 - 18:30, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 41

  • Programme No: 6.5.10

  • Theme 6 > Session 5

Abstract

Numerical models are a powerful tool for forecasting the evolution and extent of lava flow fields. Thus, there are many different models available, each with its set of assumptions, numerical methods, governing equations, programming language, inputs, and outputs. This situation makes it difficult to compare and assess models, either against each other or against observations, which can lead to a limited ability to forecast and quantify uncertainty. We present a user-friendly workflow to set up, execute, and compare multiple lava flow models, all within a notebook hosted on a cloud-based server. We use examples from recent eruptions in Iceland and Hawai'i and new model assessment tools to evaluate and compare the fit of all model forecasts to observations. The workflow is included in the VICTOR platform, a new cyber-infrastructure for volcanology, and demonstrates the added value of using a unified and joint platform beyond individual open-code repositories.