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Lava flow monitoring and modelling during the 2021-2024 Reykjanes peninsula unrest, SW Iceland

Gro B. M. Pedersen1, Melissa A. Pfeffer1, Sara Barsotti1, Einar Bessi Gestsson1, Björn Oddsson2, Magnús Tumi Gudmundsson3, Ragnar Heiðar Þrasarson1, Hörn Hrafnsdóttir4, Emilía Sol Guðgeirsdóttir4, Birgir V. Óskarsson5, Joaquin M. C. Belart5, Sydney R. Gunnarson5, Robert A. Askew5, Halldór Björnsson1, Herman Arngrímsson1, Ásta Rut Hjartardóttir1, Elísabet Pálmadóttir1, Esther Hliðar Jensen1, Daniel Ben-Yehoshua6, Bergrún A. Óladóttir1, Haukur Hauksson1, Pála Hallgrímsdóttir1,  Vincent Drouin1, Mattia De´Michieli Vitturi7 , Simone Tarquini7, Thórdís Högnadóttir, Hannah I. Reynolds, Bogi Brynjar Björnsson1, Talfan Barnie1, Kjartan Akil Jónsson1 and William M. Moreland1

  • Affiliations:  1Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland; 2The Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management, Reykjavík, Iceland; 3Nordic Volcanological Center, Institute and Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland; 4Verkís Consulting Engineers, Reykjavík, Iceland; 5Natural Science Institute of Iceland, Garðabær, Iceland; 6EFLA Engineers, Reykjavík, Iceland; 7Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy 

  • Presentation type: Talk

  • Presentation time: Tuesday 09:15 - 09:30, Room R380

  • Programme No: 6.5.4

  • Theme 6 > Session 5

Abstract

The fires on Reykjanes Peninsula are characterized by fissure eruptions that take place ~30 km SW of the Reykjavík capital area, close to urbanized areas and essential infrastructure. The first three eruptions (2021--2023) in the Fagradalsfjall volcanic system were low-intensity eruptions where the primary challenge was ensuring safety of visitors. In contrast, the seven recent eruptions within the Svartsengi volcanic system (Dec 2023--Dec 2024) had very high initial effusion rate and caused damage in the evacuated town of Gríndavík (~3,800 people), damaged roads, pipelines and power lines, and temporarily disrupted the water supply to ~30,000 people. The volcanic unrest is ongoing and continues to threaten Grindavík, the Svartsengi geothermal powerplant, and the tourist attraction the Blue Lagoon, and hence barriers have been built around these locations as defense. The difference in eruption intensity, fissure length, eruption frequency and vicinity to inhabited areas and critical infrastructure have provided major challenges calling for further developments for the lava flow monitoring and modelling. Here we present and discuss these developments which include: 1) Frequent topographic measurements of changes to the lava flow fields and barriers; 2) Pre-eruption lava flow simulations for hypothetical eruptive fissures; 3) Real-time observations of fissure locations and lava flow fronts when eruptions start; 4) Rapid initial effusion rate estimates and initiation of lava flow simulations; 5) Daily mapping of the lava flow field, vent configuration and evaluation of status at barriers and 6) Data sharing and rapid communication among the general public, private companies and government institutions.