Skip to content

Lava flow susceptibility map for Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes, Virunga Volcanic Province: A support for risk management?

Caroline Michellier 1,2, Adalbert Muhindo Syavulisembo3, Benoît Smets1,4, Joel Ndagana Kambale5, Yves Kahashi Ngunzi6, Hugues Kivasuvamo Katembo5, François Kervyn1, Matthieu Kervyn 4

  • Affiliations: 1. Natural hazards and cartography unit, Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Belgium 2. Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium 3. Goma Volcano Observatory, Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo 4. Department of Geography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium 5. North Kivu Civil Protection, Democratic Republic of Congo 6. Catholic Agency for Overseas Development, Democratic Republic of Congo 

  • Presentation type: Talk

  • Presentation time: Tuesday 09:45 - 10:00, Room R380

  • Programme No: 6.5.6

  • Theme 6 > Session 5

Abstract

The Virunga Volcanic Province (D.R.Congo) hosts two active volcanoes, Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira, producing each hazardous lava flow eruptions but with contrasted lava rheology, flow geometries, and recurrence intervals. The region between Goma and Sake, on the shores of Lake Kivu, is exposed to lava flows from both volcanoes. Here we present the method used to produce a combined lava flow inundation susceptibility map that integrates both volcanoes, using the topography-controlled Q-LAvHa probabilistic model. The probability of vent opening for the next eruption is spatially constrained for each volcano based on mapping of eruptive vents and fissures. The Q-LavHa model is then calibrated separately for each volcano, considering several historical lava flows. The accuracy of this susceptibility map has been validated by the May 2021 lava flow of Nyiragongo and the 2024 Nyamulagira eruption. Although the scientific development of this map is based on a volcano-specific calibration, its main value lies in its potential application for disaster risk management. This map can primarily be used to assess the exposure of key infrastructure to lava flow hazards in the Goma-Sake urban area. It could also support urban planning, emergency preparedness, and response strategies, ensuring contextualized risk reduction measures. However, integrating such scientific assessment into official urban planning and risk management frameworks represents a major challenge. Although co-designed with the relevant authorities, this process has not yet enabled the map to be effectively embedded into these frameworks, nor used to enhance resilience and reduce vulnerability in volcanic risk areas.