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2.5D Shallow Water Model For Lava Flows

Elisa Biagioli 1, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi2, Fabio Di Benedetto3, Margherita Polacci1

  • Affiliations: 1 Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK 2 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Pisa, Italy 3 Department of Mathematics, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Tuesday 16:30 - 18:30, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 40

  • Programme No: 6.5.9

  • Theme 6 > Session 5

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions, while unstoppable, often unfold at a pace that allows for real-time hazard assessment and response. Effusive lava flows typically advance at a few hundred meters per hour, giving scientists and civil protection the opportunity to simulate potential scenarios and prepare evacuation and safety plans during ongoing eruptions.  We present a new shallow water model designed to simulate lava flows with high physical accuracy and computational efficiency, enabling its use in real-time forecasting of potential lava flow paths during ongoing eruptions. This depth-averaged model surpasses traditional shallow water models by incorporating several key enhancements: (i) a parabolic velocity profile to capture vertical variations; (ii) a non-constant vertical temperature profile to present thermal gradients; (iii) a viscoplastic temperature-dependent viscosity model to account for the non-Newtonian behaviour of lava; (iv) a transport equation for temperature including thermal exchanges with the environment. These features place the model within the category of 2.5D models.   The model's performance was rigorously tested against laboratory experiments and data from the 2014--2015 Pico do Fogo eruption, Cape Verde. Results demonstrate that the model accurately captures essential flow features, such as front advancement and cooling dynamics, even in complex topographies. The model's ability to produce accurate results in short execution times makes it a valuable tool for real-time hazard assessment and the creation of probabilistic hazard maps. Retrospective tests on the Fogo eruption demonstrate its potential for improving risk assessments during future eruptions, providing critical support for evacuation planning and civil protection strategies.