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Can we account for human displacement in volcanic risk analyses?

Sébastien Biass 1, Sylvain Ponserre 2, Maxime Souvignet 3

  • Affiliations: 1 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Switzerland 2 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), Humanitarian Hub Office, Geneva, Switzerland 3 United Nations University---Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU- EHS), Bonn, Germany 

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Friday 16:30 - 18:00, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 97

  • Programme No: 6.7.10

  • Theme 6 > Session 7

Abstract

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) estimates that 9.8 million movements of people were triggered by geophysical hazards between 2019 and 2023, including 1.3 million displacements caused by volcanic eruptions. Beyond being one of the least reported impacts of sudden-onset disasters, the potential for displacement is rarely recognised and almost never accounted for in volcanic risk analyses. Displacement bears a cost to inviduals and local communities up to scale of the country or the international communities, thus highlighting the need to account for disaster-related displacement into disaster risk reduction. We present here the foundation of a new methodology to better capture and predict potential displacements caused by volcanic activity. By using Guatemala as a case study, we explore how modern geospatial analysis, hazard modelling techniques, exposure datasets and vulnerability models can help estimating displacement caused by a combination of loss of housing, means of livelihood and access to essential services. This work paves the way to investigate a previously overlooked aspect of volcanic risk and provides a more comprehensive representation of the disaster risk landscape for future eruptions.