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Te Awe Mapara, towards a National Volcano Hazard Model under climatic changes

Mark Bebbington 1, Graham Leonard2, on behalf of the research team

  • Affiliations: 1Volcanic Risk Solutions, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand; 2Earth Structure and Processes, GNS Science, Wellington, New Zealand

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Friday 16:30 - 18:00, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 100

  • Programme No: 6.7.12

  • Theme 6 > Session 7

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions pose an uncalculated risk to New Zealand, from loss of lives and threats to tourist and recreational industries, to the potentially $10 billion consequences of an Auckland eruption. The 2019 Whakaari disaster emphasised critical gaps in the understanding of volcanic hazard characteristics, and the lack of hazard-based forecasts for informed risk management. At larger scales, mitigating potential losses requires well-informed land use planning policies, underpinned by robust climate-cognisant assessments of future volcanic hazard impacts to reduce uncertainty.   Te Awe Mapara is a new five-year research programme seeking to create a step change from status-quo eruption onset forecasting to forecasting hazard and impact, by unravelling the complex interplay in understanding volcanic eruption source parameters (e.g., size, style, timings), hazard dynamics and climate-driven environmental effects. Conceptualising and quantifying environmental factors in these forecasts is vital to future-proof the resulting models. Assessment of new monitoring streams incorporating environmental indicators will underpin eventual operationalisation through future Tangata tiaki volcano observatories co-developed with Maori partners. New multi-hazard/multi-impact vulnerability and impact models will eventually allow for volcanic risk and uncertainty quantification at all levels from life-safety to national economy.   The benefits will include risk quantification (reduction in uncertainty leading to more robust decision making, and more accurate pricing in insurance, including risk-sharing options), risk mitigation (more resilient infrastructure siting, improved contingency and evacuation planning) and risk adaptation (fit-for-purpose unified response during unrest, eruption and quiescence; increased resilience to future volcanic hazards under climatic changes).