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Development of a pedestrian evacuation model and application to two active volcanoes in Indonesia

Mojan Marghoub Shadkar1, Sebastien Biass2, Susanna Jenkins3, Christina Widiwijayanti4, Heruningtyas Deși Purnamasari (Ibu Tyas)5, Nugraha Kartadinata (Pak Nugraha)5,Udrekh6

  • Affiliations: 1Department of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland; 2Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; 3Earth Observatory of Singapore, Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore; 4Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore; 5Center for volcanology and geological hazard mitigation (CVGHM), Bandung, Indonesia; 6National Agency for Disaster Countermeasures (BNPB), Jakarta, Indonesia

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Friday 16:30 - 18:00, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 103

  • Programme No: 6.7.14

  • Theme 6 > Session 7

Abstract

Pedestrian evacuation is an important component of risk reduction strategies in proximal areas of active volcanoes, especially for touristic volcanoes associated with short-warning eruption styles. Amongst available strategies for developing and optimizing evacuation plans, Least Cost Distance (LCD) modeling has been widely applied to estimate pedestrian evacuation times for natural hazard events and can be effectively adapted for use in volcanic eruption scenarios. Its simplicity -- both for initialization and interpretation -- makes it suitable for providing first-order insights into exposure management plans for hikers before and during a crisis. We introduce an open-source, Python-based LCD model designed to estimate evacuation times to safe zones from volcanic hazards. The methodology is demonstrated through case studies of Mt. Awu and Mt. Marapi in Indonesia. For Mt Awu, we developed a purely magmatic eruption scenario and used a dedicated plume model to estimate the spatial distribution of probabilities of occurrence of lapilli with kinetic energies >30 J (i.e., threshold for skull fractures). For Mt Marapi, we developed an eruption scenario based on the phreatic phase of the Dec 2023 eruption. Since no model accurately captures tephra dispersal from such plumes, we use a radius-based approach. The proposed methodology allows for a transparent and easily reproducible analysis of the optimal evacuation routes in proximal areas which, when put in perspective of the warning time inferred from dedicated monitoring facilities available at specific volcanoes, can provide an efficient evidence-base for the prioritization and implementation of risk-reduction measures.