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Volcano mass-wasting and volcanic processes' risk assessment using Borromean Rings and Fuzzy Logic Systems

Modesto Eusebio Portilla Gamboa

Abstract

Mass movements are natural processes which have been tailored the Earth's landscape throughout geological times. In volcanic environments, along with floods and thunderstorms, they are concerning threats in the daily lives of local inhabitants rather than volcanic eruptions in themselves. However, traditionally the community knowledge is not incorporated appropriately in technical risk assessments; so, we propose to apply Borromean Rings and Fuzzy Logic Systems for solving this issue. Based on the results of several field-trip observations, from a geotechnical perspective, is crucial to recognize that the primary destabilization mechanism of volcanoclastic deposits involves block failures rather than debris wasting. Once the destabilization happens, volcanoclastic materials travel longer distances as post-eruptive lahars and hyperconcentrated flows than syn-eruptive volcanic phenomena. On the other hand, there are specific interconnections among the probable source of a geological event and the community cosmovision of its territory. Therefore, effective technical risk assessment must integrate hazard analysis with ontologicity evaluation, incorporating in each one of them the community voices and knowledge. Fuzzy Logic Systems offer a unique framework for this integration, by translating human opinions into mathematical models through fuzzy rules. This study presents the application of Fuzzy Logic Systems, based on sketches from Borromean Rings, to assess simultaneously mass movements and volcanic risks in volcanic environments. It is done with special focus on embedding community insights and scientific knowledge together, rather than applying directly the technician's framework in the process of risk assessment of this geo-societal phenomenon.