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Disruption to airport operations by volcanic ash fall

Geoffrey A. Lerner1, Natalie R.X. Teng1, Susanna F. Jenkins 1, David Lallemant1, Andrew Tupper2, Josh L. Hayes3, George T. Williams4, Mathis Joffrain5, John Wardman6, R. Marcela Lira-Beltrán^7 ^

  • Affiliations: 1Earth Observatory of Singapore, Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University  2Natural Hazards Consulting Australia  3GNS Science, New Zealand  4MSCI, Germany  5AXA, Paris, France  6Maximum Information, London, UK  7Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México 

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Friday 16:30 - 18:00, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 107

  • Programme No: 6.7.17

  • Theme 6 > Session 7

Abstract

Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aviation, both because of the potential for physical impacts and for network disruption caused by airspace and airport closures. Until now, ash fall impacts on airport operations have received much less attention than airborne ash impacts on aviation. The time and resources taken to remove ash fall from runways and airport infrastructure can cause extended disruption to the aviation network, far beyond the presence of ash in the atmosphere. Here, using publicly available information and building on the work of Guffanti et al. (2008), we compiled a global dataset of 253 ash fall induced airport closure events between 1944 and 2023. We use this dataset to categorise impacts into five states: <1 day, 1-2 days, 3-7 days, >1 week, and permanent closure, and develop fragility curves for each state. The curves show that there is an ~80% probability of airport closure even for trace amounts of ash fall and that with a 1 mm ash fall, closures of more than one or two days are very likely (~90% and ~70%, respectively). Data points are concentrated between 1 and 100 mm thickness such that fragility curve uncertainties are greatest at the smaller and larger thicknesses. In addition to ash fall thickness, closure duration is affected by airport or national emergency management policies, resources available (personnel/equipment), and environmental conditions. This dataset and derived curves provide a starting point and global evidence base for better understanding the impact of volcanic ash fall on airport operations.