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Combining agricultural production sensitivity and farming practices paves the way for comprehensive volcanic risk analysis

Malherbe Sophie 1,2, Stark Fabien3,4, Jamoralin Suyin5,6, Talens Virginia7, Telenchana Edwin8, Vasconez Anaïs8, Delmelle Pierre1,2

  • Affiliations: 1Department of bioengineering, Université catholique de Louvain, Ottignies-Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium; 2Earth & Life Institute - Environmental Sciences (ELIE), Université catholique de Louvain, Ottignies-Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium; 3Institut national de recherche pour l\'agriculture, l\'alimentation et l\'environnement (INRAE), Institut Agro Montpellier, Montpellier, France; 4Systèmes d'élevage méditerranéens et tropicaux (UMR SELMET), Institut Agro Montpellier, Montpellier, France; 5Viva Salud, Bruxelles, Belgium; 6Solidagro, Saint-Nicolas, Belgium; 7Climate Change Network for Community-based Initiatives (CCNCI), Quezon City, Philippines; 8Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador 

  • Presentation type: Talk

  • Presentation time: Friday 09:30 - 09:45, Room S160

  • Programme No: 6.7.5

  • Theme 6 > Session 7

Abstract

Tephra fall during explosive eruptions poses a serious risk to agriculture, jeopardizing the livelihoods of millions of people who live close to active volcanoes. Few studies have investigated quantitatively the impact of tephra on agriculture. These typically use a "dose-response" approach, attributing an expected crop yield loss to a given tephra thickness. However, agriculture consists of combinations of crop and livestock productions and practices that interact dynamically. Therefore, the impact of tephra on agriculture cannot simply be reduced to the sum of its impacts on individual productions. We argue that a systemic approach is critical for accurately assessing agriculture's sensitivity to tephra fallout. Based on semi-structured interviews conducted in 26 farms in the Philippines and Ecuador, we developed "sensitivity matrices" for various crops and farm animals exposed to tephra. This approach expands on the "dose-response" model by incorporating a refined agronomical perspective, assigning expected yield loss based on phenological and physiological characteristics as well as development stages. We then identified a range of farm archetypes, each representing a different combination of crop and livestock productions in varying interactions. Using the sensitivity matrices, we calculated the overall expected losses for these farms when exposed to tephra throughout the year. Our findings reveal the importance of considering farm diversity and the degree of interaction between crops and livestock practices. They also highlight complex sensitivity patterns influenced not only by the diversity of agricultural productions but also by their physiological cycles, interactions within the farming system and degree of dependency to external inputs.