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How fit-for-purpose are volcanic physical vulnerability models at predicting impacts in diverse risk contexts?

Alana Weir 1, Lucia Dominguez1, Sebastien Biass1, Costanza Bonadonna1

Abstract

Our understanding of physical vulnerability to volcanic hazards is underpinned by observations from very few eruptions. This is in part due to the scarcity of eruptions when compared to other geological hazards, but is exacerbated by uncoordinated post-event data collection, processing and sharing procedures. Vulnerability models are crucial to anticipate and forecast impacts to inform volcanic risk management, however there are limited frameworks to validate and update vulnerability models with post-event impact data, and limited consideration of the suitability of available vulnerability models to global contexts. The 2021 Tajogaite eruption of La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain, impacted surrounding assets, economic activities and communities. Using post-event impact data collected during field campaigns conducted by the University of Geneva, we demonstrate that retrospective impact assessment is highly misaligned with the observed impacts, with some models highly overestimating the damage and disruption witnessed during the event. Using the case study of the 2021 eruption of Tajogaite, we provide some recommendations for the development, curation and application of volcanic physical vulnerability models, addressing the following questions: (1) Do risk contexts necessitate the development of unique suites of physical vulnerability models? (2) How can we determine the suitability of established models to other volcanic risk contexts? (3) What data collection, processing and sharing procedures should be in place to enhance the accuracy and therefore useability of models? And (4) How do we characterise and quantify the limitations and uncertainties of available vulnerability models for impact and risk assessment applications?