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Modeling and observing the dynamics of Lake Albano: present state and potential hazards under global warming future scenarios

Anita Grezio1 , Damiano Delrosso1, Marco Anzidei2, Marco Bianucci3, Annalisa Cherchi4, Giovanni Chiodini1, Antonio Costa1, Pierluigi Di Pietro1, Antonio Guarnieri1, Marina Locritani5, Silvia Merlino3, Filippo Muccini5, Marco Paterni3, Dmitri Rouwet1, Giancarlo Tamburello1, Georg Umgiesser6,7

  • Affiliations: 1 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna; 2 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma; 3 CNR, Lerici; 4 CNR, Bologna; 5 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma2; 6 ISMAR-CNR, Venezia; 7 Klaipeda University, Klaipeda, Lithuania

  • Presentation type: Talk

  • Presentation time: Friday 09:45 - 10:00, Room S150

  • Programme No: 6.8.6

  • Theme 6 > Session 8

Abstract

Lake Albano is a monomictic volcanic crater lake in Central Italy with CO2-rich waters. Depending on the period of the year, the lake is characterized by strong stratification or rather overturning events. In the warm season, the heating of the surface water results in a highly stratified vertical density profile, while in the cold season, the surface water cooling leads to a potential vertical instability of the water column. In this case, a partial/deep overturning of the lake water column may occur with the release in the atmosphere of the CO2 which was accumulated likely due to the fracturing of the bedrock in consequence of seismic activity. Such a process has been periodically observed in Lake Albano in the past and could pose a potential hazard to the surrounding environment and population. A 3D numerical model was implemented to investigate the lake dynamics, with the support of instrumental data collected to calibrate and validate the model.  Two numerical experiments, using different atmospheric forcing datasets, were conducted to identify past overturning events. Additionally, a future scenario simulation covering the period 2025--2044 was performed to investigate how lacustrine dynamics might respond to global warming conditions. These conditions could severely inhibit the preconditioning phases necessary for lake overturning, which in turn could reduce the frequency of overturning events, leading to the accumulation of larger amounts of CO2 in the lake. This buildup could then result in hazardous CO2 releases.