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Early warning system for detecting unexpected changes in Lake Kivu stratification

^^Jean Modeste Mushimiyimana^1,2^, Martin Schmid1, Fabian Bärenbold1, Eric Ruhanamirindi Mudakikwa3

  • Affiliations:  1 Department of Surface Waters -- Research and Management, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Kastanienbaum, Switzerland; 2 Department of Environmental Systems Sciences, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zürich), Zürich, Switzerland; 3 Division of Environment Analytics and Lake Kivu Monitoring, Rwanda Environment Management Authority, Kigali, Rwanda 

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Friday 16:30 - 18:00, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 83

  • Programme No: 6.8.9

  • Theme 6 > Session 8

Abstract

Lake Kivu, a meromictic lake rich in carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), is situated in an active volcanic region on the border between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. While it is socio-economically important for millions of people, the lake also poses significant risks. Subaquatic inflows originating from geological systems associated with two active volcanoes, Nyamuragira and Nyiragongo, maintain its permanent stratification and enable the accumulation of high concentrations of dissolved gases in its deep waters. This makes Lake Kivu vulnerable to catastrophic gas eruptions, posing a threat to over 2 million people living around its shores. Although, studies suggested that Lake Kivu is currently close to a steady state, active monitoring remains crucial to avoid potential disasters similar to the limnic eruptions in the two Cameroonian Lakes Nyos and Monoun. This work highlights the extent to which Lake Kivu's stratification changes can be attributed to various drivers, including volcanic influences. It also introduces a framework for an Early Warning System (EWS) to detect and alert unexpected stratification changes, particularly those driven by volcanic activity. The proposed EWS will enhance the existing lake model by integrating it with a lake monitoring observational database. This linkage will enable continuous comparison between observed data and model projections, allowing the system to flag unusual deviations. By providing insights into interactions between volcanic activity and lake dynamics, the system aims to strengthen hazard management and mitigate risks of limnic eruptions, ensuring community safety and preserving Lake Kivu's ecosystem.