Skip to content

Matatuhi: Forecasting and environmental tohu, examples from Aotearoa-NZ

Michael Smith1, Jonathan Procter2, Hēmi Whaanga3, Hollei Gabrielsen4, Melody Whitehead2

  • Affiliations: 1School of Agriculture and Environment, Massey University, Te Papaioea Palmerston North, Aotearoa-NZ; 2Volcanic Risk Solutions, School of Agriculture and Environment, Massey University, Te Papaioea Palmerston North, Aotearoa-NZ; 3Te Putahi-a-Toi, Massey University, Te Papaioea Palmerston North, Aotearoa-NZ; 4Department of Conservation Te Papa Atawhai, Te Papaioea Palmerston North, Aotearoa-NZ

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Monday 16:30 - 18:30, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 83

  • Programme No: 7.1.9

  • Theme 7 > Session 1

Abstract

Our world is changing faster and in ever more diverse ways -- global records are being broken from droughts to floods. In Aotearoa we have seen cataclysmic flooding, catastrophic volcanic eruptions, and the Canterbury earthquakes. An essential task in managing and adapting to our future is being able to forecast it. Science is trying to keep up, but current forecasting models require large amounts of information, and tend to focus only on one small part of a system. Forecasts lack both sufficient data and knowledge to build reliable models. We, as scientists, are stuck. We believe that the way out is by taking a holistic methodology. Such an approach is intrinsic to Mātauranga Māori (traditional knowledge) which, moreover, provides for an alternative lens on what can be considered data, beyond instrumental readings. We know that adding more voices with alternate understandings leads to better, more transparent forecasts with accurate descriptions of uncertainty. Here, we present region-specific examples of tohu (indicators) from the iwi that whakapapa to these areas, including around Ruapehu, an active composite volcano on the Te Ika-a-Māui North Island, Aotearoa. This research will build robust forecasts of our environmental future, and shift the conversation in Aotearoa away from "How can Mātauranga Māori be fitted into science?" and towards "What can science do to support Mātauranga Māori?" We invite discussion around similar successful (or otherwise) approaches from the global volcanological community.