Skip to content

Managing prolonged volcanic unrest in the Reykjanes-Svartsengi system: Challenges in monitoring, hazard assessment and risk communication

Sara Barsotti1 , Matthew J. Roberts 1, Bergrún A. Óladóttir 1, Haukur Hauksson 1, Kristín Jónsdóttir 1, Benedikt G. Ófeigsson 1, Einar B. Gestsson 1

Abstract

Since October 2023, volcanic unrest has been ongoing in the Reykjanes-Svartsengi volcanic system, Iceland. To date, seven fissure eruptions have occurred on the Sundhnúkur crater row. This type of effusive volcanic activity, characterized by eruptions closely spaced in time, is well-documented in Iceland's eruption history and is referred to as fires. The proximity of eruptive fissures on the Sundhnúkur crater row to critical infrastructure, combined with sustained volcanic activity, makes the ongoing unrest a remarkable case study for analyzing hazards and risks. The Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO), as the State Volcano Observatory, is tasked with assessing volcanic hazards. One of IMO's key roles is to provide decision-makers with hazard-based assessments to minimize volcanic risks. Despite excellent collaboration between IMO and Icelandic civil authorities, the scale, duration, and intensity of the volcanic unrest have necessitated additional responsibilities for IMO. These include: (1) using IMO's published hazard map as the primary tool for regional risk assessments; (2) holding dedicated meetings with private companies to explain the basis of hazard assessments and how potential hazards could disrupt economic activity; and (3) addressing the unilateral governmental decision to reopen the town of Grindavík without an actionable preparedness plan, which required IMO to develop ad-hoc contingency plans for enhanced monitoring and assessment. Alongside an overview of the eruptive activity, this talk will present the challenges faced by IMO personnel in managing a prolonged phase of high uncertainty under significant pressure. It will also highlight how the communication and assessment of volcanic hazards were successfully achieved.