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A long-term volcanic hazard and risk assessment for the Reykjanes peninsula, Iceland. Overview and communication with stakeholders

Bergrún Arna Óladóttir, Ásta Rut Hjartardóttir, Benedikt Halldórsson, Bogi B. Björnsson, Gro B.M. Pedersen, Guðmundur Jósepsson, Ingibjörg Þórðardóttir, Jón Elvar Wallevik, Kristín Jónsdóttir, Melissa Anne Pfeffer, Milad Kowsari, Sara Barsotti, Sigrún Karlsdóttir, Þórður Ágúst Karlsson, William M. Moreland.

Abstract

A new eruptive period has started on the Reykjanes peninsula. From 2021-2024 ten volcanic eruptions occurred in two of the six volcanic systems in the area. History tells that most or all the peninsula's systems become active during eruptive periods, which may last ~500 years. Hence, volcanic eruptions near the most densely populated area in Iceland, including the capital city, are a realistic possibility. It is vital to identify vulnerable areas exposed to volcanic hazards through hazard and risk assessment. The assessments are important for community and urban planning, and a necessary knowledge for reasonable mitigation actions for critical infrastructure such as water supply, power lines, and roads. The Icelandic Meteorological Office, on behalf of the Icelandic government, leads volcanic hazard and risk assessment for the Reykjanes peninsula. Hazard assessment of lava, gas, tephra, earthquakes and fault movements will be completed for the entire area whereas risk assessment is done based on realistic risk scenarios of high impact events, for infrastructure and/or society, useful for response and mitigation planning. The overall aim is to make the society better prepared and resilient to volcanic hazards for centuries to come. Stakeholders participate in the project through regular meetings with IMO, to ensure good understanding between actors and clear and beneficial results for the wider user community. These meetings are organised by civil protection departments and representatives from municipalities and those responsible for critical infrastructure participate. Final products of the project will be made available and communicated through an interactive web portal.