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Theory and reality in adopting best-practice guidelines during a volcanic crisis

Christopher Kilburn 1, Stefano Carlino2, Nicola Alessandro Pino3.

  • Affiliations: 1UCL Hazard Centre, Department of Earth Sciences, UCL, London, UK; 2INGV-Sezione di Napoli, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Napoli, Italy; 3Università di Camerino, Scuola di Scienze e Tecnologie, Sezione di Geologia, Camerino, Italy. 

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Monday 16:30 - 18:30, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 116

  • Programme No: 7.2.28

  • Theme 7 > Session 2

Abstract

Guidelines to recommended best practice during volcanic emergencies are easy to support on paper, but less so when an emergency strikes -- particularly if this occurs after a lull of several decades. Such intervals are long enough to forget the lessons from previous crises. When a new crisis develops, therefore, individuals may not automatically follow the recommendations, especially if responding to an emergency for the first time. The first crisis at Campi Flegrei in four decades provides a topical case study. West of Naples in Italy, the volcano is home to more than 360,000 people. Following intense volcano-tectonic seismicity in September-October 2023, a report on 09 November in southern Italy's leading newspaper, Il Mattino, cited the opinions of "anonymous volcanologists", who claimed that selected (and peer-reviewed) analyses recently presented to Italy's Major Risk Committee were "based on fundamental errors" and "incorrect data" and that they were the results of models -- which are "only theories and [often] wrong". The claimants had "not been present at the meeting". They also offered no evidence to justify their criticisms. A predictable outcome was the corrosion of public trust in scientific information. Even if the criticisms were well-intentioned and the consequences of media engagement unexpected, the lack of supporting evidence meant that opportunities were missed for enhancing the collective interpretation of the volcano's unrest. Moral imperatives for scientists during crises are thus not only to be careful in communicating with non-scientists, but also to engage in the constructive testing of ideas among colleagues.