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A Volcanic Risk Ranking for Ecuadorian Volcanoes: What is enough to recognize the difference between risk and hazard?

Fernanda Naranjo1 , Costanza Bonnadona2, Corine Frischknecht2, Carlos Velasco3, Francisco Herrera4, and Patricia A. Mothes1

  • Affiliations:  1Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador; 2Department of Science, University of Geneva, Geneve, Switzerland; 3Secretaría Nacional de Planificación, Quito, Ecuador; 4Instituto de Investigación Geológico y Energético, Quito, Ecuador. 

  • Presentation type: Poster

  • Presentation time: Monday 16:30 - 18:30, Room Poster Hall

  • Poster Board Number: 119

  • Programme No: 7.2.31

  • Theme 7 > Session 2

Abstract

Ecuador has a high concentration of volcanoes along the Andean Cordilleras and volcanoes in the Galápagos Islands. Recently, different eruptive events occurred at volcanoes Guagua Pichincha (1999-2001), El Reventador (2002-present), Tungurahua (1999-2016), Sangay (2019-present), and Cotopaxi, (2015, and most recently from October 2022 -- July 2023). Recent eruptions have also occurred on the Galapagos Islands (e.g., Wolf in 2015, Fernandina (2024), and Sierra Negra in 2018). Frequent eruptions and impacts include adverse health effects, loss of life, societal disruption, and economic losses at local and regional scales. We employed a new methodology to determine volcanic risk ranking proposed by Nieto-Torres et al. (2021) to analyze 39 Ecuadorian volcanoes that presented eruptive activity during the last 10,000 years. The Volcanic Risk Ranking (VRR) in Ecuador includes the traditional 3-factor (Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability, VRR 1) and the 4-factor (Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, and Resilience, VRR 2).  Consequently, the 3 factors-ranking and 4 factors-ranking, are Cotopaxi and Chachimbiro, respectively. Volcanoes on the sparsely populated Galapagos Islands show lower risk scores in both methods. The results of a collaborative framework involving multidisciplinary teams and inter-institutional cooperation at national and international levels, an assessment of early warning systems, and other measures are required to reduce future impact in terms of volcanic risk. However, we are still working on generating space to discuss those topics and looking for a consensus is essential. Then, effective communication can occur, directly influencing disaster preparedness and response planning and reducing vulnerability to volcanic hazards.