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Scientific advice to the Italian Civil Protection on volcanic hazard, during the current unrest of the Campi Flegrei caldera

Mauro Rosi1, Valerio Acocella2, Sandro Aiuppa3, Francesca Bianco4, Raffaello Cioni5, Guido Giordano2\, Marco Viccaro6, Giulio Zuccaro7

  • Affiliations:  1 Università di Pisa, Italy, 2 Università Roma Tre, Italy, 3 Università di Palermo, Italy, 4 INGV, Italy, 5 Università di Firenze, Italy, 6 Università di Catania, Italy, 7 Università di Napoli Federico II, Italy

  • Presentation type: Talk

  • Presentation time: Monday 14:15 - 14:30, Room R380

  • Programme No: 7.2.5

  • Theme 7 > Session 2

Abstract

*presenting and corresponding author Facing the recent evolution of the Campi Flegrei caldera unrest, the Scientific Advisory Committee (Commissione Grandi Rischi; CGR) of the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC) is now managing a very complex and potentially disruptive situation, in the frame of and according to the Italian legislation. At Campi Flegrei, more than 450,000 people live within the caldera floor that is entirely mapped as red zone, i.e. the area that according to the National Emergency Plan needs to be fully evacuated prior to an eruption, with at least 72 hours of anticipation to allow all civil protection activities to be orderly executed. This has created enormous pressure on scientific advice, since missing a full evacuation prior to an eruption may result in a severe toll, as much as a false alarm may cause severe and unnecessary economic and social disruption. Essentially, scientists are required to provide their advice not only to anticipate with certainty the forthcoming eruption, but with enough anticipation for civil protection procedures to be put into place. In this contribution the authors, who are the members of the current CGR, will summarize the scientific advisory activities undertaken since October 2023, the challenges and the proposed innovations respect to previous practices, including the auditing of the international scientific community on several relevant topics. We hope to set off  an in-depth discussion about the best procedures to adopt to give timely, scientifically informed advice in areas exposed to extremely high volcanic risks.