Session 2.4: Towards Enhanced Forecasting of Volcanic Systems: Monitoring and Beyond
Talks:
Posters:
Talks
The continuous volcanic activity at Semeru volcano (Indonesia) from 2014 to 2023 investigated with remote sensing data (SAR, thermal and optical) and geodetic modelling.
Federico Galetto1, Diego Reale2, Eugenio Sansosti2, Diego Coppola3, Matthew Pritchard1
Monday, 08:30 - 08:45
Using remote sensing techniques to analyze physical dynamics and paroxysmal precursors during the 2019--2020 and 2023 eruptions at Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska
Andie Gomez-Patron1, Hannah Dietterich2, David Schneider2
Monday, 08:45 - 09:00
Periodic dike intrusions in Kīlauea's middle East Rift Zone continue post-2018
Emily K. Montgomery-Brown1, Kyle Anderson1 , Ingrid A. Johanson2, Andria P. Ellis2, Michael P. Poland3
Monday, 09:00 - 09:15
Seasonal Control on Phreatic Activity of the Crater Lake of Copahue Volcano During the 2018-2022 Eruptive Cycle
Fabricio Carbajal1, Sebastian Garcia 1, Nicolas Vigide1,2, Gabriela Badi1,3, Mariano Agusto2,4, F. Carballo5.
Monday, 09:15 - 09:30
The July, 2024 Hydrothermal Explosion at Black Diamond Pool in Yellowstone National Park: The Scientific Response and What We've Learned
Jamie Farrell1, Lauren Harrison2, Phillip Kondracki2, Mara H. Reed3, Jefferson D.G. Hungerford4, Kiernan F. Folz Donahue4, Michael P. Poland5, Alex M. Iezzi5
Monday, 09:30 - 09:45
Exploring multiparametric data analyses to study volcanic activity at Stromboli from 2016 to 2024
Alexander Garcia1, Lucia Zaccarelli1, Laura Sandri1, Micol Todesco1
Monday, 09:45 - 10:00
Using a Damage Approach to Model Pre-Eruptive Surface Displacements and Help Forecast Volcanic Eruptions
Jean-Luc Got1, Aline Peltier2, Valérie Ferrazzini2, David Marsan1
Monday, 10:30 - 10:45
Probabilistic forecast of Vulcanian explosions at Sakurajima volcano using statistical features of ground deformation
Kyoka Ishii 1, Masato Iguchi2
Monday, 10:45 - 11:00
Identifying dike propagation patterns at Mount Etna through forward-modelling and AI-powered ground deformation inversions
Rebecca Bruni1, Erica De Paolo2, Deepak Garg1, Martina Allegra2, Flavio Cannavò2, Chiara Paola Montagna1, Paolo Papale1, Michele Carpenè3
Monday, 11:00 - 11:15
Optimising timescales for machine learning-based eruption forecasting: Insights from Miyakejima Volcano, Japan
Julie De Groote , Benoit Taisne, Susanna Jenkins
Monday, 11:15 - 11:30
Lessons learned from near real-time monitoring of volcanic unrest and dike propagation/eruption forecasting in Iceland
Vincent Drouin 1, Benedikt G. Ófeigsson1, Hildur M. Friðriksdóttir1, Michelle Parks1, Sigrún Hreinsdóttir2
Monday, 14:15 - 14:30
Temporal Evolution of Crustal Stress and Seismicity at Volcanoes During Periods of Unrest
Eric Newland 1,2, Christopher Kilburn1,2
Monday, 14:30 - 14:45
Using Low-frequency DAS Signals for Early Warning During the Sundhnúksgígur, Iceland, Eruptions in 2024 Authors/Affiliations
1Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, 1Hrefna Marín Gunnarsdóttir, 2Jiaxuan Li, 3Ettore Biondi, 4Kristín Jónsdóttir, 4Sara Barsotti, 4Einar Bessi Gestsson, 5Valey Kamalov, 3Zhongwen Zhan
Monday, 14:45 - 15:00
Progress in short-term eruption forecasts by the USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP)
Heather MN Wright, Jay Wellik, Sally Sennert, Stephanie G Prejean, Jeremy Pesicek, Sarah E Ogburn, Wendy McCausland, JoAnna G Marlow, Jacob B Lowenstern , Zac Hastings, Chris Hight
Monday, 15:00 - 15:15
Posters
A next generation, near-real-time volcanic eruption monitoring algorithm for use with both MODIS Aqua/Terra and SNPP VIIRS, providing continuity with the MODIS/EOS era MODVOLC system
Nikola Rogic, Eric Pilger, Andrea Gabrieli, Robert Wright
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 225
Hidden Markov Random Fields as scaffolding around Indigenous Knowledge at Ruapehu volcano
Melody Whitehead 1, Mark Bebbington1, Jonathan Procter1, Hēmi Whaanga2, Hollei Gabrielsen3, Murray Lark4
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 226
Forecasting the position and timing of eruptive vents using a particle filter method.
Léa Zuccali 1,2, Virginie Pinel1, Yajing Yan2
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 227
Resolving traction changes on fractures in a 3D heterogeneous crust using fictitious domains
Dabaghi Farshid1, Valérie Cayol2 and Bodart Olivier1
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 228
Strain tomography of magmatic systems
Tim Davis1, Juliet Biggs1, Sylvain Barbot2
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 230
The first instrumentally detected hydrothermal explosion in Yellowstone National Park
Michael P. Poland1, Alex M. Iezzi1, Jamie Farrell2, R. Greg Vaughan3
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 231
Study of the explosive eruption jets with the experimental and theoretical approaches
Nataliya Galina, Ayuta Tsuge, Ryuki Tada, Kiwamu Nishida, Mie Ichihara
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 233
Bridging the Gap Between Magma Conduit Models and Near-Field Ground Deformation Observations
Eliot Eaton, Jurgen Neuberg, Susanna Ebmeier
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 235
Integration of satellite and ground-based thermal sensor surveys to constrain heat fluxes at hydrothermal systems: experiences from Poás and Nisyros
Sophie Pailot-Bonnétat 1, Andrew Harris1, Victoria Rafflin1,a, Céline Bonnetain1, Alessio Serravalli1, Loÿc Vanderklyusen2, Jacob Brauner2, Christina Liu2, Michael Ramsey3
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 237
Constraints on magma ascent to eruption from patterns of unrest
Christopher Kilburn 1,3, Deni Gowen1,3 & Carmen Solana2,3
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 239
The new Daily Volcanic Activity Report: using daily volcanic event data for eruption forecasting
Sarah Ogburn 1, JoAnna G. Marlow1, Zac Hastings1, Sally Sennert2, Heather Wright1, Ed Venzke3, Benjamin Andrews3, Chris Hight1, Jacob Lowenstern1, Kadie Bennis3, Gari Mayberry4
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 241
Resistivity: a new volcano monitoring tool?
Lore Vanhooren1,2 , Thomas Hermans1, Corentin Caudron2
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 243
Lagrangian volcanic ash transport from sea surface to seafloor following the January 15, 2022, eruption of Hunga volcano.
Marcus Chaknova, Thomas Giachetti, Kristen Fauria, Liam Kelly
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 245
Volcano monitoring challenges in an active Quaternary monogenetic volcanic province in western Saudi Arabia
Fawaz Muqeem1, Abdel Rahman Al-Sweigh 1, Mahmoud Ashour 1, Khaled Abdel Hafez 1, Turki Habilel 1, Károly Németh 1,2,3
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 246
Forecasting the evolution of the 2021 Tajogaite eruption, La Palma, with TROPOMI/PlumeTraj-derived SO2 emission rates
Mike Burton1,2 , Ben Esse1, Catherine Hayer3, Giuseppe La Spina2, Ana Pardo Cofrades1, Maria Asensio-Ramos4, Jose Barrancos4,5, Nemesio Pérez4,6
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 248
Quantifying Hydrothermal Contributions to Volcanic Deformation: The 2021 Unrest of Askja Volcano
Laure Brenot 1,Társilo Girona2, Hélène Le Mével3, Corentin Caudron1, Jifei Han4, Tom Winder5
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 249
Laboratory evidence for subsurface steam transport driving thermal anomalies at active volcanoes
Noé García-Martínez 1, Társilo Girona2, David Benavente1
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 251
Monitoring microdeformations at Mount Etna: modelling, insights and interpretations of shallow magma convection and replenishment dynamics
Owen McCluskey 1,Paolo Papale1, Chiara Montagna1, Antonella Longo1, Deepak Garg1, Joe Carthy2, Carmen Benitez2, Carolina Pagli3
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 253
Dyke-induced seismicity: depth-dependent acoustic emissions and strain in rock deformation experiments
Matías Clunes 1,3, Philip Benson2,3, Carmen Solana1,3
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 255
Long-term volcano-tectonic unrest on the Reykjanes peninsula: Europe\'s unique natural laboratory for studying the depth-dependent interaction of magmatic and tectonic processes
Thomas R. Walter1,2, Egill Árni Gudnason3, Ólafur G. Flóvenz4, Gylfi Páll Hersir4, Torsten Dahm1,2, Philippe Jousset1, Maria Hurley1,2, Alina V. Shevchenko1, Pinar Buyukakpinar1, Marius Isken1, Martin Zimmer1, Bettina Strauch1, Magnús Tumi Gudmundsson5, Beatrice Giuliante1,6, Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir3, Mahdi Motagh1, Eva P. S. Eibl2, Gesa Petersen1, Simone Cesca1, Sebastian Hainzl1, Jana Doubravová6, Jan Burjánek6
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 257
Harnessing Public-Private Partnerships -- A Pragmatic Approach Towards Volcano Monitoring in Canada
Glyn Williams-Jones1, Kevin Clark2, Veronica Woodruff3, Melanie Kelman4
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 258
FEVER: Forecasting Eruptions at Volcanoes after Extended Repose
Christopher Kilburn1, Eric Newland1, Matias Clunes2, Carmen Solana 2, Philip Benson1, Erouscilla Joseph3, Giuseppe De Natale4
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 260
Short-term eruption forecasting in the next decade: A new era of high-resolution thermal infrared data
Michael Ramsey 1, James Thompson2, Jean-François Smekens3
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 261
Dike intrusion simulation in 3D stress field using discrete element method
Eisuke Fujita
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 263
Are there thermal precursors to eruptions detectable by satellite? Evaluating 22 years of global medium resolution satellite thermal observations at 195 erupting subaerial volcanoes
Matthew E Pritchard1, Andrea Gomez-Patron 1, Hugh Peng2, Abigail Downes2, Chloe Crothers3, Jiada Valenza4, Austin Wada5,6, Lin Way7 and Laura Zapata8
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 265
Optimising volcano monitoring network: ensuring reliability and redundancy on data transmission Marapi case
Shaira Lee Pabalan , Benoit Taisne
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 267
Data assimilation in volcanic deformation
Shungo Tonoyama 1, Atsushi Suzuki 2, Kengo Nakajima 2,3, Takemasa Miyoshi 1
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 269
Examination of the causes of geomagnetic changes observed during periods of volcanic unrest based on numerical modeling
Wataru Kanda 1; Shunki Tamura2,3
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 270
Eruption probabilities from seismic data assimilation: Insights from the 2023 paroxysms of Shishaldin Volcano
Társilo Girona 1, Kyungmin Kim1, Matthew Haney2, David Fee1, John Power2, Taryn Lopez1
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 272
Characterizing pre- and syn-eruptive processes at Great Sitkin Volcano, Alaska, by integrating seismic data assimilation and satellite-based thermal anomalies
Kyungmin Kim 1, Társilo Girona1, Kyle Anderson2, John Power3, Xiaotao Yang4, Matt Haney3
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 273
Investigation of thermo-hydrodynamic processes preceding the different eruption styles observed in a laboratory geyser
Ayuta Tsuge1, Mie Ichihara1
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 275
Using Cross-Entropy as a Volcanic Precursor: the case study of the 2021 Tajogaite Eruption (La Palma, Spain)
Aarón Álvarez-Hernández4 (aalvarez@involcan.org) , Luca D'Auria4, 5 (ldauria@iter.es), Rubén García-Hernández4 (rgarciahernandez@involcan.org), David Martínez-van Dorth4, 5 (dmartinez@iter.es), Víctor Ortega-Ramos4 (victor.ortega@involcan.org), Germán D. Padilla-Hernández4, 5 (german@iter.es), Pablo Rey-Devesa1, 2 (pablord@ugr.es), Janire Prudencio1, 2 (janire@ugr.es), Manuel Titos3 (titos@ugr.es), Jesús Ibáñez1, 2 (jibanez@ugr.es), Carmen Benítez3 (carmen@ugr.es), and Nemesio M. Pérez4, 5 (nperez@iter.es)
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 276
Do shape and size of erupted tephra reflect their porosity? An investigation of representative tephra from explosive eruptions at Mt Etna (Italy)
Alexandra Grace Lang 1, Daniele Andronico 2, Simona Caruso 2, Rosa Anna Corsaro 2, Antonio Cristaldi 2, Mattia Pistone 1
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 278
Probabilistic Failure Forecast Method (FFM) of geochemical observables to forecast the time of geological events in volcanic systems
Nemesio M. Pérez1,2, Luca D'Auria1,2, Pedro A. Hernández1,2, Gladys V. Melián1,2, Eleazar Padrón1,2, Germán D. Padilla1,2 María Asensio-Ramos1 and Berverley Coldwell1,2
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 279
FEM model of surface deformation pattern applied to the Campi Flegrei caldera
^^ Pierdomenico Romano^^ , Bellina Di Lieto, Annarita Mangiacapra, Zaccaria Petrillo, Agata Sangianantoni
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 281
WITHDRAWN -Training deep learning networks with models integrating complex rheologies in the magmatic system: An advance to forecast time series models of volcanic deformation
Camila Novoa Lizama, Andrew Hooper, Matthew Gaddes, Milan Lazecky, Shailza Sharma, Gopal Phartiyal, David Hogg, Susanna Ebmeier
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 282
A trans-dimensional inversion algorithm to model deformation sources with unconstrained shape in finite element domains
Erica De Paolo 1, Nicola Piana Agostinetti2, Elisa Trasatti3
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 283
Volcanic unrest detection using trans-dimensional McMC: application to dike intrusion events at Mount Etna
Erica De Paolo 1, Nicola Piana Agostinetti2, Flavio Cannavò1
Monday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 284
