Session 6.4: Operational hazard forecasts: source parameters and model evaluation

Talks:

Thursday 08:30 - 10:00

Room R280

Posters:

Thursday 16:30 - 18:30

Room R280

Talks

Modelling the transport and dispersion of a co-PDC ash cloud: an evaluation of source geometry and mass eruption rate

Marie Hagenbourger ¹, Thomas Jones¹, Frances Beckett², Samantha Engwell³

Thursday, 08:30 - 08:45

Estimating the intensity of explosive volcanic eruptions using volcanic cloud spreading rates

Rebecca Tanner¹, Dr Thomas Aubry¹, Prof Matthew Watson², Dr Samantha Engwell³, Prof Fred Prata⁴

Thursday, 08:45 - 09:00

Operational ashfall forecasting in New Zealand: Current status and future perspectives (Invited)

Paul A. Jarvis ¹, Victoria Miller², Josh Hayes¹, Tony Hurst¹, Rosa Trancoso³, Oliver Lamb⁴, Aleksandr Spesivtsev¹, Anna Perttu⁵, Andrew T. Prata⁶, Valentin Freret-Lorgeril⁷

Thursday, 09:00 - 09:15

Quantitative Volcanic Ash (QVA) -- A new operating requirement for Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs)

Frances Beckett , Charlie Bates, Ben Evans, Matthew Hort, Andrew Jones, Nina Kristiansen, Violet Sherratt, Olivia Smedley, Nicola Stebbing, Tomasz Trzeciak, Charlie Tucker

Thursday, 09:15 - 09:30

Ash Concentration Forecast at VAAC Buenos Aires (Invited)

Soledad Osores ¹, Eliana Vazquez¹, Micaela Maurizi², Leonardo Mingari³, Arnau Folch³, Juan Augusto Díaz¹, Michael Pavolonis⁴, Justin Sieglaff⁵

Thursday, 09:30 - 09:45

KAIROS AI-digital solution: a novel approach to forecasting the transport of SO2-rich volcanic plumes

Hugues Brenot¹, Aniel Jardines², Javier García-Heras Carretero³, Matthias Piot⁴, Jeroen van Gent¹, Nicolas Theys¹, Javier Ballester², Damien Brunori², Ana Isabel Herrera², Nicolas Manzano², Iván Martínez², Virginia Villaplana², Manuel Soler³, Christian Höpfner-Schubert⁴

Thursday, 09:45 - 10:00

Posters

Optimizing lava flow simulations using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach

Francesco Zuccarello¹, Giuseppe Bilotta¹, Flavio Cannavò¹, Annalisa Cappello¹, Gaetana Ganci¹

Thursday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 260

Tailored transport and deposition forecasting of volcanic emissions for field campaigns: Results from the VOLCOM campaign at Sakurajima volcano, Japan

Alexandros P. Poulidis^1,2, Simon Thivet ³, Simon Bittner¹, Andreas Richter¹, Masato Iguchi⁴, Mihalis Vrekoussis^1,5,6

Thursday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 261

MetPrep: A model-agnostic meteorological pre-processor for emergency applications in local volcanic emission dispersal

Alexandros Panagiotis Poulidis ¹, Leonardo Mingari², Maria Kanakidou^1,3,4, Mihalis Vrekoussis^1,5,6, Arnau Folch²

Thursday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 262

Exploring the Relationship between Plume Height and SO2 Flux for Explosive Eruptions

Frances Beckett ¹, Nina Kristiansen¹, Thomas Aubry², Samantha Engwell³

Thursday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 263

Evaluation Metrics for Volcanic Ash Cloud Forecasts

Hannah C.M. Susorney¹ Frances M. Beckett¹ Charlie E. Bates¹

Thursday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 264

Using Simulated Radiances to Understand the Limitations of Satellite-Retrieved Volcanic Ash Data and the Implications for Volcanic Ash Cloud Forecasting

Cameron Saint ¹, Frances Beckett¹, Fabio Dioguardi^2,3, Nina Kristiansen¹, Robert Tubbs¹.

Thursday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 265