Session 6.4: Operational hazard forecasts: source parameters and model evaluation

Talks:

Thursday 08:30 - 10:00

Room R280

Posters:

Thursday 16:30 - 18:30

Room Poster Hall

Talks

Modelling the transport and dispersion of a co-PDC ash cloud: an evaluation of source geometry and mass eruption rate

^^Marie Hagenbourger^{^}1^, Thomas Jones¹, Frances Beckett², Samantha Engwell³

Thursday, 08:30 - 08:45

Estimating the intensity of explosive volcanic eruptions using volcanic cloud spreading rates

Rebecca Tanner¹, Dr Thomas Aubry¹, Prof Matthew Watson², Dr Samantha Engwell³, Prof Fred Prata⁴

Thursday, 08:45 - 09:00

Operational ashfall forecasting in New Zealand: Current status and future perspectives (Invited)

^^Paul A. Jarvis^{^}1^, Victoria Miller², Josh Hayes¹, Tony Hurst¹, Rosa Trancoso³, Oliver Lamb⁴, Aleksandr Spesivtsev¹, Anna Perttu⁵, Andrew T. Prata⁶, Valentin Freret-Lorgeril⁷

Thursday, 09:00 - 09:15

Quantitative Volcanic Ash (QVA) -- A new operating requirement for Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs)

Frances Beckett, Charlie Bates, Ben Evans, Matthew Hort, Andrew Jones, Nina Kristiansen, Violet Sherratt, Olivia Smedley, Nicola Stebbing, Tomasz Trzeciak, Charlie Tucker

Thursday, 09:15 - 09:30

Ash Concentration Forecast at VAAC Buenos Aires (Invited)

^^Soledad Osores^{^}1^, Eliana Vazquez¹, Micaela Maurizi², Leonardo Mingari³, Arnau Folch³, Juan Augusto Díaz¹, Michael Pavolonis⁴, Justin Sieglaff⁵

Thursday, 09:30 - 09:45

KAIROS AI-digital solution: a novel approach to forecasting the transport of SO2-rich volcanic plumes

Hugues Brenot¹, Aniel Jardines², Javier García-Heras Carretero³, Matthias Piot⁴, Jeroen van Gent¹, Nicolas Theys¹, Javier Ballester², Damien Brunori², Ana Isabel Herrera², Nicolas Manzano², Iván Martínez², Virginia Villaplana², Manuel Soler³, Christian Höpfner-Schubert⁴

Thursday, 09:45 - 10:00

Posters

Optimizing lava flow simulations using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach

Francesco Zuccarello¹, Giuseppe Bilotta¹, Flavio Cannavò¹, Annalisa Cappello¹, Gaetana Ganci¹

Thursday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 260

Tailored transport and deposition forecasting of volcanic emissions for field campaigns: Results from the VOLCOM campaign at Sakurajima volcano, Japan

Alexandros P. Poulidis^1,2, ^^Simon Thivet^{^}3^, Simon Bittner¹, Andreas Richter¹, Masato Iguchi⁴, Mihalis Vrekoussis^1,5,6

Thursday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 261

MetPrep: A model-agnostic meteorological pre-processor for emergency applications in local volcanic emission dispersal

^^Alexandros Panagiotis Poulidis^{^}1^, Leonardo Mingari², Maria Kanakidou^1,3,4, Mihalis Vrekoussis^1,5,6, Arnau Folch²

Thursday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 262

Exploring the Relationship between Plume Height and SO2 Flux for Explosive Eruptions

^^Frances Beckett^{^}1^, Nina Kristiansen¹, Thomas Aubry², Samantha Engwell³

Thursday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 263

Evaluation Metrics for Volcanic Ash Cloud Forecasts

Hannah C.M. Susorney¹ Frances M. Beckett¹ Charlie E. Bates¹

Thursday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 264

Using Simulated Radiances to Understand the Limitations of Satellite-Retrieved Volcanic Ash Data and the Implications for Volcanic Ash Cloud Forecasting

^^Cameron Saint^{^}1^, Frances Beckett¹, Fabio Dioguardi^2,3, Nina Kristiansen¹, Robert Tubbs¹.

Thursday, 16:30 - 18:30 • 265